Bundesliga · May 25LOST
SC Paderborn v Wolfsburg
2–1DC · DA
Odds33/100
2025-26 · 9 leagues · 5 markets
Beat the book.
Back the model.
A per-league prediction model, fit walk-forward on years of results and calibrated against the closing line. Every call is settled in public — 88% of high-strike picks land.
88%High-strike rate
346Settled calls
9Leagues covered
Recent Hits
Settled calls · 83% landed · past performance is not a guarantee of future returns · 18+
Verified
Jupiler Pro League · May 24WON
Club Brugge v Gent
5–0DC · HD
Odds21/200
Jupiler Pro League · May 21WON
Mechelen v Club Brugge
2–2DC · DA
Odds7/100
Premier League · May 18WON
Arsenal v Burnley
1–01X2 · H
Odds3/25
Ligue 1 · May 17WON
Nice v Metz
0–0DC · HD
Odds7/50
La Liga · May 17WON
Barcelona v Betis
3–1DC · HD
Odds33/200
Primeira Liga · May 16WON
Sp Lisbon v Gil Vicente
3–0DNB · H
Odds2/15
Primeira Liga · May 16WON
Sp Braga v Estrela
2–2DC · HD
Odds45/200
Primeira Liga · May 16WON
Porto v Santa Clara
1–0DNB · H
Odds19/16
Bundesliga · May 16VOID
Leverkusen v Hamburg
1–1DNB · H
Odds1/6
Bundesliga · May 16WON
Bayern Munich v FC Koln
5–1DNB · H
Odds3/25
Premier League · May 13WON
Man City v Crystal Palace
3–0DNB · H
Odds2/13
Primeira Liga · May 11WON
Rio Ave v Sp Lisbon
1–4DNB · A
Odds1/8
Primeira Liga · May 10LOST
AVS v Porto
3–1DNB · A
Odds29/200
Ligue 1 · May 10WON
Paris SG v Brest
1–0DNB · H
Odds11/100
Jupiler Pro League · May 10WON
Union St-Gilloise v Mechelen
3–0DNB · H
Odds41/200
Bundesliga · May 09WON
Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich
0–1DC · DA
Odds39/200
Bundesliga · May 09WON
RB Leipzig v St Pauli
2–1DNB · H
Odds7/50
Ligue 1 · May 08WON
Lens v Nantes
1–0DC · HD
Odds1/8
Primeira Liga · May 04WON
Sp Lisbon v Guimaraes
5–1DNB · H
Odds7/50
Ligue 1 · May 02WON
Paris SG v Lorient
2–2DC · HD
Odds11/100
Bundesliga · May 02LOST
Bayern Munich v Heidenheim
3–3DC · HA
Odds21/200
Primeira Liga · Apr 29LOST
Sp Lisbon v Tondela
2–21X2 · H
Odds11/100
Primeira Liga · Apr 26LOST
AVS v Sp Lisbon
1–11X2 · A
Odds11/100
Primeira Liga · Apr 26WON
Estrela v Porto
1–2DNB · A
Odds1/6
Scottish Prem · Apr 26LOST
Rangers v Motherwell
2–3DC · HD
Odds4/25
Scottish Prem · Apr 25WON
Celtic v Falkirk
3–1DNB · H
Odds45/200
Ligue 1 · Apr 25WON
Angers v Paris SG
0–3DNB · A
Odds1/8
La Liga · Apr 22WON
Barcelona v Celta
1–0DNB · H
Odds23/200
Jupiler Pro League · Apr 22WON
Club Brugge v Mechelen
6–1DNB · H
Odds3/25
La Liga · Apr 21WON
Real Madrid v Alaves
2–1DNB · H
Odds3/25
Ligue 1 · Apr 19LOST
Paris SG v Lyon
1–2DNB · H
Odds1/6
Bundesliga · Apr 19WON
Bayern Munich v Stuttgart
4–2DC · HD
Odds1/6
Primeira Liga · Apr 12WON
Sp Braga v Arouca
1–0DNB · H
Odds41/200
Primeira Liga · Apr 11WON
Estrela v Sp Lisbon
0–1DNB · A
Odds1/9
Scottish Prem · Apr 11WON
Celtic v St Mirren
1–0DNB · H
Odds4/25
La Liga · Apr 11WON
Barcelona v Espanol
4–1DNB · H
Odds29/200
Bundesliga · Apr 11WON
St Pauli v Bayern Munich
0–5DNB · A
Odds17/100
Ligue 1 · Apr 10WON
Marseille v Metz
3–1DNB · H
Odds13/100
La Liga · Apr 10VOID
Real Madrid v Girona
1–1DNB · H
Odds2/13
Scottish Prem · Apr 05WON
Dundee v Celtic
1–2DC · DA
Odds11/100
Primeira Liga · Apr 04VOID
Porto v Famalicao
2–2DNB · H
Odds37/200
Scottish Prem · Apr 04WON
Rangers v Dundee United
4–2DNB · H
Odds33/200
Scottish Prem · Apr 04WON
Hibernian v Kilmarnock
3–0DC · HD
Odds21/200
Bundesliga · Apr 04WON
Freiburg v Bayern Munich
2–3DC · DA
Odds31/200
Bundesliga · Apr 04WON
Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
6–3DC · HD
Odds1/9
Primeira Liga · Apr 03WON
Sp Lisbon v Santa Clara
4–2DNB · H
Odds1/6
Primeira Liga · Apr 03WON
Gil Vicente v AVS
3–0DNB · H
Odds3/20
The tournament
World Cup 2026
The first 48-team World Cup runs across the United States, Canada and Mexico — 104 matches over five and a half weeks. It is the single biggest run of football the model will ever price in one window.
A word of honesty, because it's how we work: our club model never saw an international tournament, so we don't pretend it priced this one. Instead, the moment the outright and match markets open we read them across the major books and strip the bookmaker margin — a vig-free fair line on every nation and every fixture, available to subscribers.
Either way it sits on its own, never mixed into the club track record — World Cup numbers never touch the headline yield or strike rate. Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.
United StatesCanadaMexico
48
Teams · 12 groups
104
Matches
16
Host cities
3
Host nations
Route to the final
- Jun 11Opening matchEstadio Azteca · Mexico City
- Jun 11–27Group stage48 teams · 12 groups of 4
- Jun 28 – Jul 3Round of 32
- Jul 4–7Round of 16
- Jul 9–11Quarter-finals
- Jul 14–15Semi-finals
- Jul 19FinalMetLife Stadium · New Jersey
Live model — subscribers only
Tonight's fixture probabilities are behind the gate.
Every World Cup fixture, priced by the model with the bookmaker margin stripped. Settled outcomes appear below — the live projections are reserved for subscribers.
Next fixture · sample shapecycles every 5s
Settled this tournament
21 / 27 match calls · 78%
14 / 27 goals (U/O 2.5) · 52%
Each row is a match we priced before kickoff — the score, our call, and whether we got it right. Nothing hidden.
- 2026-06-1901:00ZMexicovsSouth KoreaMatch: Mexico or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–01–0✓
- 2026-06-1822:00ZCanadavsQatarMatch: CanadaGoals: Over 2.5✓6–06–0✓
- 2026-06-1819:00ZSwitzerlandvsBosnia & HerzegovinaMatch: SwitzerlandGoals: Under 2.5✗4–14–1✓
- 2026-06-1816:00ZCzech RepublicvsSouth AfricaMatch: Czech Republic or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–11–1✓
- 2026-06-1802:00ZUzbekistanvsColombiaMatch: ColombiaGoals: Under 2.5✗1–31–3✓
- 2026-06-1723:00ZGhanavsPanamaMatch: Ghana or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–01–0✓
- 2026-06-1720:00ZEnglandvsCroatiaMatch: England or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗4–24–2✓
- 2026-06-1717:01ZPortugalvsDR CongoMatch: PortugalGoals: Over 2.5✗1–11–1✗
- 2026-06-1704:02ZAustriavsJordanMatch: AustriaGoals: Over 2.5✓3–13–1✓
- 2026-06-1701:02ZArgentinavsAlgeriaMatch: ArgentinaGoals: Under 2.5✗3–03–0✓
- 2026-06-1622:00ZIraqvsNorwayMatch: NorwayGoals: Over 2.5✓1–41–4✓
- 2026-06-1619:02ZFrancevsSenegalMatch: FranceGoals: Over 2.5✓3–13–1✓
- 2026-06-1601:03ZIranvsNew ZealandMatch: Iran or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗2–22–2✓
- 2026-06-1522:03ZSaudi ArabiavsUruguayMatch: UruguayGoals: Under 2.5✓1–11–1✗
- 2026-06-1519:00ZBelgiumvsEgyptMatch: Belgium or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–11–1✓
- 2026-06-1516:01ZSpainvsCape VerdeMatch: SpainGoals: Over 2.5✗0–00–0✗
- 2026-06-1502:00ZSwedenvsTunisiaMatch: Sweden or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗5–15–1✓
- 2026-06-1423:03ZIvory CoastvsEcuadorMatch: Draw or Ecuador(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–01–0✗
- 2026-06-1420:00ZNetherlandsvsJapanMatch: Netherlands or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗2–22–2✓
- 2026-06-1404:00ZAustraliavsTurkeyMatch: Draw or Turkey(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓2–02–0✗
- 2026-06-1401:00ZHaitivsScotlandMatch: ScotlandGoals: Over 2.5✗0–10–1✓
- 2026-06-1322:04ZBrazilvsMoroccoMatch: Brazil or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–11–1✓
- 2026-06-1319:04ZQatarvsSwitzerlandMatch: SwitzerlandGoals: Over 2.5✗1–11–1✗
- 2026-06-1301:02ZUSAvsParaguayMatch: USA or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗4–14–1✓
- 2026-06-1219:02ZCanadavsBosnia & HerzegovinaMatch: Canada or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✓1–11–1✓
- 2026-06-1202:00ZSouth KoreavsCzech RepublicMatch: South Korea or Draw(double chance)Goals: Under 2.5✗2–12–1✓
- 2026-06-1119:00ZMexicovsSouth AfricaMatch: MexicoGoals: Under 2.5✓2–02–0✓
The record
Every call, settled in public.
Settled picks only · past performance is not a guarantee of future returns
Rolling strike rate
How often the model's most confident calls land. Short-priced favourites at average odds 1.21 — wins very often, but each win pays small.
If you'd backed every La Liga + Liga Portugal pick
Stake per pick£
Stake
£100
per pick · rolls over 215 picks
Result
101
+ 65 refunds · £23,458 back
Profit
+£1,958
67.3% strike rate
ROI
+9.1%
profit ÷ staked
By confidence
§04 · Calibration
HIGHER CONFIDENCE, higher strike.
The model is well-calibrated when its stated confidence matches the actual hit rate. Each bar should land above its confidence band; bars below 50% are coin-flip territory.
The 60% line marks the typical strike rate of a tipster service quoting short-odds favourites. Above it is the product promise.
By market & league
§05 · Breakdown
Where the model is strongest.
By market
- 1X277.2%match result228picks·176/52
- Draw No Bet71.2%home or away · void on draw1814picks·978/396+440v
- Double Chance76.3%two of three outcomes3038picks·2317/720+1v
- O/U 2.556.2%total goals over / under201picks·113/88
- BTTS50.0%both teams to score6picks·3/3
| Group | Picks | Strike | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
1X2 match result | 228 | 77.2% | 176/52 |
Draw No Bet home or away · void on draw | 1814 | 71.2% | 978/396+440v |
Double Chance two of three outcomes | 3038 | 76.3% | 2317/720+1v |
O/U 2.5 total goals over / under | 201 | 56.2% | 113/88 |
BTTS both teams to score | 6 | 50.0% | 3/3 |
By league
- Jupiler Pro League70.0%B11521picks·1014/434+73v
- Premier League74.7%E0735picks·509/172+54v
- La Liga76.6%SP1617picks·436/133+48v
- Bundesliga78.3%D1594picks·430/119+45v
- Ligue 176.5%F1591picks·419/129+43v
- Primeira Liga79.5%P1520picks·376/97+47v
- Scottish Prem77.5%SC0347picks·238/69+40v
- Championship56.5%E1243picks·105/81+57v
- Serie A70.6%I1119picks·60/25+34v
| Group | Picks | Strike | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
Jupiler Pro League B1 | 1521 | 70.0% | 1014/434+73v |
Premier League E0 | 735 | 74.7% | 509/172+54v |
La Liga SP1 | 617 | 76.6% | 436/133+48v |
Bundesliga D1 | 594 | 78.3% | 430/119+45v |
Ligue 1 F1 | 591 | 76.5% | 419/129+43v |
Primeira Liga P1 | 520 | 79.5% | 376/97+47v |
Scottish Prem SC0 | 347 | 77.5% | 238/69+40v |
Championship E1 | 243 | 56.5% | 105/81+57v |
Serie A I1 | 119 | 70.6% | 60/25+34v |
Coverage leagues
Beyond the majors.
Four year-round competitions we price through the European off-season — same model, settled in public. Strike rate on par with the majors.
Brasileirão Série A
BRA · 2026-27
71.1%
strike rate
630picks·419/170+41v
MLS
USA · 2026-27
68.8%
strike rate
765picks·501/227+37v
J1 League
JPN · 2025-26
68.5%
strike rate
1322picks·856/394+72v
Chinese Super League
CHN · 2026-27
67.3%
strike rate
436picks·278/135+23v
Settled walk-forward results. These leagues sit outside the headline yield — published for coverage breadth, not as edge picks.
The ledger
Winners and losers, in full.
Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.
View
High strike rate. Every high-confidence call (model probability ≥ 85%) across all 9leagues and all 5 markets. Lands at the rate the numbers say it should — short odds, almost always right. One pick per fixture, the model's most confident call on each.
FilterLeague269/269
- May 25, 2026BundesligalostSC Paderborn2:1WolfsburgDouble Chance — Draw or Away33/1001.33
- May 24, 2026Jupiler Pro LeaguewonClub Brugge5:0GentDouble Chance — Home or Draw21/2001.11
- May 21, 2026Jupiler Pro LeaguewonMechelen2:2Club BruggeDouble Chance — Draw or Away7/1001.07
- May 18, 2026Premier LeaguewonArsenal1:0BurnleyMatch Result — Home3/251.12
- May 17, 2026Ligue 1wonNice0:0MetzDouble Chance — Home or Draw7/501.14
- May 17, 2026La LigawonBarcelona3:1BetisDouble Chance — Home or Draw33/2001.16
- May 16, 2026Primeira LigawonSp Lisbon3:0Gil VicenteMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home2/151.13
- May 16, 2026Primeira LigawonSp Braga2:2EstrelaDouble Chance — Home or Draw45/2001.23
- May 16, 2026Primeira LigawonPorto1:0Santa ClaraMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home19/162.19
- May 16, 2026BundesligavoidLeverkusen1:1HamburgMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home1/61.17
- May 16, 2026BundesligawonBayern Munich5:1FC KolnMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home3/251.12
- May 13, 2026Premier LeaguewonMan City3:0Crystal PalaceMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home2/131.15
- May 11, 2026Primeira LigawonRio Ave1:4Sp LisbonMatch Odds (No Draw) — Away1/81.12
- May 10, 2026Primeira LigalostAVS3:1PortoMatch Odds (No Draw) — Away29/2001.14
- May 10, 2026Ligue 1wonParis SG1:0BrestMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home11/1001.11
- May 10, 2026Jupiler Pro LeaguewonUnion St-Gilloise3:0MechelenMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home41/2001.20
- May 09, 2026BundesligawonWolfsburg0:1Bayern MunichDouble Chance — Draw or Away39/2001.19
- May 09, 2026BundesligawonRB Leipzig2:1St PauliMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home7/501.14
- May 08, 2026Ligue 1wonLens1:0NantesDouble Chance — Home or Draw1/81.12
- May 04, 2026Primeira LigawonSp Lisbon5:1GuimaraesMatch Odds (No Draw) — Home7/501.14
- May 02, 2026Ligue 1wonParis SG2:2LorientDouble Chance — Home or Draw11/1001.11
- May 02, 2026BundesligalostBayern Munich3:3HeidenheimDouble Chance — Home or Away21/2001.10
- Apr 29, 2026Primeira LigalostSp Lisbon2:2TondelaMatch Result — Home11/1001.11
- Apr 26, 2026Primeira LigalostAVS1:1Sp LisbonMatch Result — Away11/1001.11
- Apr 26, 2026Primeira LigawonEstrela1:2PortoMatch Odds (No Draw) — Away1/61.17
| Date▼ | Fixture· | Tip | Price· | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | SC Paderborn2:1Wolfsburg Bundesliga | Double Chance — Draw or Away | 33/100 | lost |
| May 24, 2026 | Club Brugge5:0Gent Jupiler Pro League | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 21/200 | won |
| May 21, 2026 | Mechelen2:2Club Brugge Jupiler Pro League | Double Chance — Draw or Away | 7/100 | won |
| May 18, 2026 | Arsenal1:0Burnley Premier League | Match Result — Home | 3/25 | won |
| May 17, 2026 | Nice0:0Metz Ligue 1 | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 7/50 | won |
| May 17, 2026 | Barcelona3:1Betis La Liga | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 33/200 | won |
| May 16, 2026 | Sp Lisbon3:0Gil Vicente Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 2/15 | won |
| May 16, 2026 | Sp Braga2:2Estrela Primeira Liga | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 45/200 | won |
| May 16, 2026 | Porto1:0Santa Clara Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 19/16 | won |
| May 16, 2026 | Leverkusen1:1Hamburg Bundesliga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 1/6 | void |
| May 16, 2026 | Bayern Munich5:1FC Koln Bundesliga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 3/25 | won |
| May 13, 2026 | Man City3:0Crystal Palace Premier League | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 2/13 | won |
| May 11, 2026 | Rio Ave1:4Sp Lisbon Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Away | 1/8 | won |
| May 10, 2026 | AVS3:1Porto Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Away | 29/200 | lost |
| May 10, 2026 | Paris SG1:0Brest Ligue 1 | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 11/100 | won |
| May 10, 2026 | Union St-Gilloise3:0Mechelen Jupiler Pro League | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 41/200 | won |
| May 09, 2026 | Wolfsburg0:1Bayern Munich Bundesliga | Double Chance — Draw or Away | 39/200 | won |
| May 09, 2026 | RB Leipzig2:1St Pauli Bundesliga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 7/50 | won |
| May 08, 2026 | Lens1:0Nantes Ligue 1 | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 1/8 | won |
| May 04, 2026 | Sp Lisbon5:1Guimaraes Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Home | 7/50 | won |
| May 02, 2026 | Paris SG2:2Lorient Ligue 1 | Double Chance — Home or Draw | 11/100 | won |
| May 02, 2026 | Bayern Munich3:3Heidenheim Bundesliga | Double Chance — Home or Away | 21/200 | lost |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Sp Lisbon2:2Tondela Primeira Liga | Match Result — Home | 11/100 | lost |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AVS1:1Sp Lisbon Primeira Liga | Match Result — Away | 11/100 | lost |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Estrela1:2Porto Primeira Liga | Match Odds (No Draw) — Away | 1/6 | won |
page 1 / 11 · 1–25
§05 · How it works
For the curious.
Skip if you trust the numbers.
Every tip is generated from data alone — years of historical match results across each league, re-weighted daily so recent form counts more than ancient history. No tipsters, no hot takes, no team loyalties — only what the numbers support.
The model writes a probability for every market on every match — 1X2, Draw No Bet, Double Chance, Over / Under 2.5, Both Teams To Score. From that single forecast we publish two surfaces — for two different kinds of punter.
High strike rate — every high-confidence call (model probability ≥ 85%) across all 9 leagues and all 5 markets. Lands at the rate the numbers say it should: roughly 85% of these settled picks have won, on slim positive yield. Short odds, almost always right.
High yield — the May 2026 grid search asked where do we measurably beat the closing line? The answer is Draw No Bet in La Liga and Liga Portugal, at medium confidence, in the medium-odds band — consistent double-digit yield across two seasons. Smaller slate, harder calls, but the price is right.
The dashboard above shows every tip from this season — winners and losers, in full view. Nothing is hidden, nothing is cherry-picked. The strike rate is what it is.
Today · subscriber view
Today's slate is in flight.
Sign in to see it.
Subscribers get the day's high-confidence picks — fresh picks each morning, in the dashboard and via Telegram. Every settled outcome from past picks is already public — the rest is what you get when you sign in.
In today's slate
High-confidence picks
publishes by 09:00 UTC
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