Football calls · real UK prices · 14 days free
Strike.
Only when we mean it.
On Telegram by 07:00 UTC on days with calls: the few football calls rated 80% or better — by our model for league fixtures, by a market-led rating for tournaments — each with the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted. Every result stays public, losers included.
85% of 3,920 calls landed — every one is listed below.
3,848 walk-forward, worked out afterwards on past matches since May 2023 · 72 live since 10 Sep 2026 · live calls alone 79% · how we count →
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- Losers stay on the record
- Real UK prices, time-stamped
- Live calls sent before kick-off
Latest results
The latest results — wins, losses and voids · 18+
Europe's nights, called.
Strike calls on tournament fixtures · each at a UK bookmaker's quote, published before kick-off and kept on the ledger
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On days with calls, one Telegram message lists each: the match, the call, the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted. Some days nothing is rated 80% or better, so nothing is sent.
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Today's calls.
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Trial members and subscribers get the calls before kick-off: the match, the call, the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and when it was quoted. Every live call reaches the public ledger below the day after its fixture.
Watch 14 days of calls land — or miss — before you pay a penny.
Every call. Losers included.
Newest first · 4,222 calls · 73 live, each at the price quoted when we published · 4,149 walk-forward, each at its archived closing price
Live calls appear here the day after their fixture; subscribers see them before kick-off. Walk-forward calls, labelled on each card, were worked out afterwards on archived closing prices and never published before kick-off. A card's details show the UK market fair (de-vigged) — favourites tend to land a little above it with or without a model.
Sat 21 Mar
walk-forward- MLS · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceNashville SC v Orlando City5–0✓ours 82% · price implies 89% · 61% / 21% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineNashville SC or drawDC1.12 (3/25) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at Virgin Betarchived quote 21:40 UTC · kick-off 22:15 UTC
Details
UK market fair 84% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceFluminense v Atletico-MG1–0✓ours 82% · price implies 88% · 55% / 26% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineFluminense or drawDC1.14 (7/50) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 20:55 UTC · kick-off 21:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Ligue 1 · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceNice v Paris SG0–4✓ours 83% · price implies 85% · 14% / 18% / 67%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceParis SG (DNB)DNB1.17 (17/100) at Coral · next best 1.15 (3/20) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 19:25 UTC · kick-off 20:05 UTC
Details
UK market fair 79% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Serie A · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceJuventus v Sassuolo1–1✗ours 81% · price implies 87% · 69% / 19% / 12%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceJuventus or SassuoloDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at Virgin Betarchived quote 19:10 UTC · kick-off 19:45 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Primeira Liga · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceBenfica v Guimaraes3–0✓ours 83% · price implies 90% · 73% / 17% / 9%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceBenfica or GuimaraesDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.09 (9/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 17:25 UTC · kick-off 18:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 86% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Scottish Prem · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceRangers v Aberdeen4–1✓ours 84% · price implies 89% · 74% / 16% / 10%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceRangers or AberdeenDC1.12 (3/25) at William Hill · next best 1.10 (1/10) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 17:10 UTC · kick-off 17:45 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Bundesliga · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceDortmund v Hamburg3–2✓ours 83% · price implies 87% · 67% / 20% / 13%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceDortmund (DNB)DNB1.15 (3/20) at Coral · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 16:55 UTC · kick-off 17:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Serie A · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceMilan v Torino3–2✓ours 83% · price implies 91% · 66% / 21% / 13%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceMilan (DNB)DNB1.10 (1/10) at Coral · next best 1.08 (2/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 16:25 UTC · kick-off 17:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Primeira Liga · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceFamalicao v Nacional1–0✓ours 81% · price implies 85% · 55% / 26% / 19%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceFamalicao or drawDC1.17 (17/100) at William Hill · next best 1.13 (13/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:55 UTC · kick-off 15:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Scottish Prem · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceHearts v Dundee1–0✓ours 83% · price implies 88% · 67% / 19% / 14%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceHearts (DNB)DNB1.13 (13/100) at Coral · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:25 UTC · kick-off 15:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Championship · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceSouthampton v Oxford2–0✓ours 84% · price implies 85% · 61% / 23% / 16%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceSouthampton or drawDC1.17 (17/100) at William Hill · next best 1.14 (7/50) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:25 UTC · kick-off 15:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Championship · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceHull v Sheffield Weds3–1✓ours 85% · price implies 88% · 69% / 19% / 12%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceHull (DNB)DNB1.13 (13/100) at Coral · next best 1.09 (9/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:25 UTC · kick-off 15:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Premier League · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceFulham v Burnley3–1✓ours 84% · price implies 89% · 61% / 23% / 16%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceFulham or drawDC1.12 (3/25) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:25 UTC · kick-off 15:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 84% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Bundesliga · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceBayern Munich v Union Berlin4–0✓ours 82% · price implies 85% · 82% / 11% / 6%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceBayern Munich to win1X21.17 (17/100) at Betfair Exchange (exchange, before commission) · next best 1.17 (17/100) at Coralarchived quote 13:55 UTC · kick-off 14:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 13 prices)
- Bundesliga · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceHeidenheim v Leverkusen3–3✓ours 84% · price implies 85% · 16% / 21% / 63%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceLeverkusen or drawDC1.17 (17/100) at William Hill · next best 1.13 (13/100) at Virgin Betarchived quote 13:55 UTC · kick-off 14:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Championship · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceIpswich v Millwall1–1✓ours 81% · price implies 85% · 56% / 24% / 19%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceIpswich or drawDC1.18 (9/50) at William Hill · next best 1.15 (3/20) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 11:55 UTC · kick-off 12:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 80% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Chinese Super League · Sat 21 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceHenan Songshan Longmen v Wuhan Three Towns1–1–ours 81% · price implies 87% · 65% / 20% / 15%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineHenan Songshan Longmen (DNB)DNB1.15 (3/20) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 10:25 UTC · kick-off 11:00 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 80% (de-vigged, 1 price)
Fri 20 Mar
walk-forward- Ligue 1 · Fri 20 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceLens v Angers5–1✓ours 83% · price implies 89% · 74% / 17% / 9%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceLens or AngersDC1.12 (3/25) at William Hillarchived quote 19:10 UTC · kick-off 19:45 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 1 price)
- Serie A · Fri 20 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceCagliari v Napoli0–1✓ours 82% · price implies 87% · 18% / 27% / 55%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceNapoli or drawDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.12 (3/25) at Virgin Betarchived quote 16:55 UTC · kick-off 17:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
Thu 19 Mar
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Thu 19 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceFlamengo RJ v Remo3–0✓ours 84% · price implies 85% · 84% / 11% / 5%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineFlamengo RJ to win1X21.17 (17/100) at Betfair Exchange (exchange, before commission) · next best 1.17 (17/100) at Coralarchived quote 22:25 UTC · kick-off 23:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 13 prices)
Wed 18 Mar
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Wed 18 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceMirassol v Coritiba0–1✗ours 82% · price implies 81% · 63% / 23% / 14%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineMirassol (DNB)DNB1.23 (23/100) at LiveScore Bet · next best 1.22 (11/50) at Coralarchived quote 22:25 UTC · kick-off 23:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 75% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Wed 18 Marwalk-forward · archived closing pricePalmeiras v Botafogo RJ2–1✓ours 84% · price implies 90% · 61% / 23% / 16%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match linePalmeiras or drawDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.08 (2/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 21:25 UTC · kick-off 22:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
Mon 16 Mar
walk-forward- Premier League · Mon 16 Marwalk-forward · archived closing priceBrentford v Wolves2–2✓ours 83% · price implies 87% · 60% / 23% / 17%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceBrentford or drawDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 19:25 UTC · kick-off 20:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Sun 15 Mar
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Sun 15 Marwalk-forward · archived closing pricePalmeiras v Mirassol1–0✓ours 82% · price implies 87% · 59% / 23% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match linePalmeiras or drawDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 20:55 UTC · kick-off 21:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Primeira Liga · Sun 15 Marwalk-forward · archived closing pricePorto v Moreirense3–0✓ours 85% · price implies 91% · 79% / 15% / 6%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match pricePorto or MoreirenseDC1.10 (1/10) at William Hillarchived quote 19:55 UTC · kick-off 20:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 87% (de-vigged, 1 price)
By rating band.
The rating each call carried — on a live call when it was published, on a walk-forward call when it was worked out — against how often calls in that band landed. The tick marks the chance their prices implied.
Decided calls: 3,848 walk-forward, 72 live
- 80–85%84% landed · 3,264 decided · prices implied 86%
- 85–90%90% landed · 632 decided · prices implied 89%
- 90–95%17 decided · rate shown from 50
- 95%+7 decided · rate shown from 50
Axis 50–100% · voids are left out of every band's rate
By market and league.
Settled calls · a rate is shown from 50 decided calls
Decided calls: 3,848 walk-forward, 72 live
| Group | Decided | Void | Strike | Prices implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw No Bet home or away · void on draw | 1,283 | 302 | 85% | 87% |
1X2 match result | 297 | 0 | 87% | 85% |
Double Chance two of three outcomes | 2,340 | 0 | 84% | 87% |
| Group | Decided | Void | Strike | Prices implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Premier League E0Europe | 349 | 34 | 86% | 87% |
Championship E1Europe | 266 | 20 | 84% | 86% |
Bundesliga D1Europe | 259 | 21 | 86% | 86% |
La Liga SP1Europe | 350 | 19 | 86% | 87% |
Ligue 1 F1Europe | 250 | 23 | 86% | 87% |
Scottish Prem SC0Europe | 227 | 13 | 84% | 86% |
Primeira Liga P1Europe | 333 | 22 | 86% | 87% |
Serie A I1Europe | 391 | 39 | 85% | 87% |
Belgian Pro League B1Europe | 208 | 15 | 86% | 86% |
Allsvenskan SE1Coverage | 188 | 15 | 82% | 87% |
Eliteserien NO1Coverage | 220 | 7 | 85% | 87% |
J1 League JPNCoverage | 90 | 8 | 81% | 86% |
Brasileirão Série A BRACoverage | 329 | 26 | 85% | 86% |
MLS USACoverage | 266 | 22 | 81% | 86% |
Chinese Super League CHNCoverage | 186 | 18 | 85% | 87% |
Europa League UELTournament | 8 | 0 | — | — |
The strike rate, call by call.
Each point: every decided call to that point · voids left out
Straight answers.
What do I get for free?
14 days of calls, sent to you on Telegram — the same messages subscribers get. One tap to start: no card and no email.
What happens when the trial ends?
Nothing is charged — we never took a card. If you want to keep getting the calls, you subscribe; if not, they simply stop.
How do I get the calls?
On days with calls, they arrive on Telegram at 07:00 UTC as direct messages, each naming the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted. Subscribers see every call on the website, including any made after the morning messages.
Why so few calls?
A call goes out only when it is rated 80% or better and a UK bookmaker or exchange is quoting a price for it. Some days there are several, some days none — we don't pad the list.
What does “rated 80%” mean?
It's our estimate of how likely the call is to land — from our model for league fixtures, from a market-led rating for tournaments. It's a rating, not a promise: every call, and whether it landed, is on the public record, so you can see how the ratings have held up.
Do I place bets here?
No — Kestra isn't a bookmaker, and nothing is placed through us. Each live call names the UK bookmaker or exchange that was quoting the price when we published, and each walk-forward call the archived closing quote it was worked out from; what you do with it is your own decision.
How do I know it's real and not cherry-picked?
Every call on the live record is published before kick-off, naming the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted, and every one settles in public — won, lost or void. One call per fixture. For league fixtures the model is fit walk-forward, so it is never trained on the day it calls. The ledger's calls before live calls began are walk-forward: the same rules applied afterwards to archived closing prices, each labelled on its card, none published before kick-off.
What happens on a losing run?
No model wins every week, and we never pretend otherwise — every loss stays on the public record beside the wins. Each call shows the chance its price implies next to our rating, so you can judge the record for yourself. Please gamble responsibly, and never with money you can't afford to lose.
Can I cancel?
Anytime. It's a 30-day rolling subscription — no lock-in, no contract.
For the sceptics: the exact rules every call follows, and how we count.
- Three markets
- Every call is a 1X2 result, a Draw No Bet or a Double Chance, rated 80% or better. Over/Under and both teams to score are rated but not published.
- Direct UK quotes only
- A call carries only a price a UK bookmaker or exchange quoted for that exact market, at 1.10 or longer — never a price worked out from another market: on a live call, the quote when we published; on a walk-forward call, the archived closing quote.
- One call per fixture
- When more than one market qualifies, the call is taken in a fixed order — Draw No Bet, then 1X2, then Double Chance — never simply the highest rating, because Double Chance on the same side always rates at least as high.
- No call on thin history
- No call on a league fixture where either club has played fewer than six league matches: the model cannot rate a club from so few games.
- Tournament calls
- On a tournament fixture the rating is led by the bookmakers' consensus. For the European club competitions it is exactly that consensus with each margin removed, so there the 80% bar is a market threshold; for national sides it is a blend in which that consensus carries most of the weight, beside national-team ratings. Each tournament call says which, and knockout ties are never called, because bookmakers settle these markets on 90 minutes.
- What “price implies” means
- One divided by the price: at 1.25 the price implies 80%. It includes the bookmaker's margin. Beside a strike rate, it shows how often calls at those prices would land if the prices were exactly right.
- The UK market fair
- Each ledger card's details also show the UK market fair: the chance implied by the UK bookmakers quoting the full market once each one's margin is removed (de-vigged), with identical price sets counted once and exchanges left out. Favourites tend to land a little above it with or without a model, so it is a reference, not a test.
- Exchanges
- Exchange prices are shown before commission, so a winning exchange call returns less than its price shows.
- Voids
- A void neither lands nor misses — a Draw No Bet call on a draw, or a fixture that is not played. Voids stay on the ledger and are left out of every strike rate.
The ledger's calls on fixtures that kicked off before live calls began (10 Sep 2026, 17:51 UTC) are walk-forward: the same selection rules applied to archived closing UK quotes in 15 leagues from May 2023, with each rating fitted only on matches played before its fixture. None was published or sent at the time.
The rules were fixed in September 2026, and the model's settings (its blend weight, and which ratings it blends) were chosen during 2026, both with this period in view; only each rating's fit is walk-forward.
Walk-forward calls use closing UK quotes taken about 30 minutes before kick-off; live calls are priced up to about 40 hours before kick-off, so a live price can differ from a closing one.
European ratings are blended with football-data's Pinnacle pre-match price, or Bet365's where Pinnacle's is missing, or are the model's alone where neither was available; coverage-league ratings are blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match line, or are the model's alone where none was archived; live calls are blended with Pinnacle's line from the odds feed, or are the model's alone where the feed had none. Each walk-forward card says which.
Of the 5,213 fixtures where the model rated a selection 80% or better, 4,149 became walk-forward calls and 1,064 were left out: 833 with no UK bookmaker or exchange quoting that market at 1.10 or longer before kick-off, 179 with a club that had played fewer than six league matches, and 52 the archive could not match to a pre-kick-off quote or a UK market fair.
On the model's Draw No Bet ratings in the 55–80% band (nine European leagues, 2022-23 to 2026-27, decided fixtures), it added no measurable information to Pinnacle's closing price (z −0.50, n 5,130). We make no claim that it knows more than the market; the ledger shows how often calls at these prices land.
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