MLS · Sun 20 SepLOST
Inter Miami v San Diego FC
2–2Inter Miami or San Diego FC
ours 82% · price implies 85%1.18 (9/50)
Football calls · real UK prices · 14 days free
Strike.
Only when we mean it.
On Telegram by 07:00 UTC on days with calls: the few football calls rated 80% or better — by our model for league fixtures, by a market-led rating for tournaments — each with the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted. Every result stays public, losers included.
85% of 3,920 calls landed — every one is listed below.
3,848 walk-forward, worked out afterwards on past matches since May 2023 · 72 live since 10 Sep 2026 · live calls alone 79% · how we count →
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- Losers stay on the record
- Real UK prices, time-stamped
- Live calls sent before kick-off
85%Calls landedlikely range 84–86%
3,920Calls counted3,848 walk-forward · 72 live · 302 void
87%Odds suggestedthe chance the prices gave them
16Leagues & cupswith a result
Latest results
The latest results — wins, losses and voids · 18+
Brasileirão Série A · Sun 20 SepWON
Flamengo RJ v Bragantino
2–1Flamengo RJ (DNB)
ours 86% · price implies 89%1.12 (3/25)
Serie A · Sun 20 SepWON
Milan v Lecce
3–0Milan or Lecce
ours 82% · price implies 85%1.18 (9/50)
Ligue 1 · Sun 20 SepWON
Marseille v Paris SG
1–2Paris SG or draw
ours 83% · price implies 88%1.13 (13/100)
Belgian Pro League · Sun 20 SepWON
Club Brugge v Genk
3–0Club Brugge or draw
ours 83% · price implies 88%1.14 (7/50)
La Liga · Sun 20 SepWON
Villarreal v Levante
3–1Villarreal or draw
ours 83% · price implies 85%1.18 (9/50)
Eliteserien · Sun 20 SepWON
Tromso v HamKam
3–2Tromso or draw
ours 84% · price implies 88%1.14 (7/50)
Eliteserien · Sun 20 SepWON
Viking v Lillestrom
3–0Viking (DNB)
ours 83% · price implies 85%1.18 (9/50)
Allsvenskan · Sun 20 SepWON
Degerfors v Hammarby
0–1Hammarby (DNB)
ours 85% · price implies 91%1.10 (1/10)
Primeira Liga · Sun 20 SepWON
Guimaraes v Moreirense
1–1Guimaraes or draw
ours 82% · price implies 89%1.12 (3/25)
Serie A · Sun 20 SepLOST
Frosinone v Como
2–0Como or draw
ours 83% · price implies 86%1.16 (4/25)
Premier League · Sun 20 SepWON
Man City v Sunderland
5–3Man City (DNB)
ours 88% · price implies 90%1.11 (11/100)
Championship · Sun 20 SepLOST
Norwich v Bolton
3–4Norwich or draw
ours 83% · price implies 88%1.14 (7/50)
Allsvenskan · Sun 20 SepLOST
Djurgarden v Elfsborg
1–2Djurgarden or draw
ours 82% · price implies 87%1.15 (3/20)
La Liga · Sun 20 SepWON
Getafe v Malaga
1–0Getafe or draw
ours 81% · price implies 79%1.27 (27/100)
Belgian Pro League · Sun 20 SepWON
Antwerp v Union St-Gilloise
0–2Union St-Gilloise or draw
ours 81% · price implies 85%1.17 (17/100)
Brasileirão Série A · Sat 19 SepWON
Vasco v Coritiba
5–0Vasco or draw
ours 81% · price implies 87%1.15 (3/20)
Primeira Liga · Sat 19 SepLOST
Sp Lisbon v Arouca
2–2Sp Lisbon to win
ours 83% · price implies 82%1.22 (11/50)
Brasileirão Série A · Sat 19 SepVOID
Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-SC
1–1Atletico-MG (DNB)
ours 85% · price implies 86%1.16 (4/25)
La Liga · Sat 19 SepWON
Sevilla v Barcelona
1–3Sevilla or Barcelona
ours 85% · price implies 91%1.10 (1/10)
Eliteserien · Sat 19 SepLOST
Molde v Aalesund
1–2Molde (DNB)
ours 85% · price implies 89%1.12 (3/25)
Allsvenskan · Sat 19 SepWON
Orgryte v Sirius
1–2Sirius or draw
ours 82% · price implies 87%1.15 (3/20)
La Liga · Sat 19 SepWON
Ath Bilbao v Alaves
0–0Ath Bilbao or draw
ours 81% · price implies 87%1.15 (3/20)
Eliteserien · Sat 19 SepWON
Kristiansund v Rosenborg
1–3Kristiansund or Rosenborg
ours 81% · price implies 83%1.20 (1/5)
Premier League · Sat 19 SepWON
Everton v Ipswich
1–0Everton or draw
ours 80% · price implies 80%1.25 (1/4)
J1 League · Sat 19 SepWON
Urawa Reds v Verdy
3–1Urawa Reds or draw
ours 80% · price implies 85%1.18 (9/50)
Eliteserien · Fri 18 SepLOST
Sarpsborg 08 v KFUM Oslo
1–3Sarpsborg 08 or draw
ours 81% · price implies 85%1.17 (17/100)
Europa League · Thu 17 SepLOST
Lillestrom v Torreense
1–2Lillestrom or draw
market consensus 83% · price implies 87%1.15 (3/20)
Europa League · Thu 17 SepWON
Juventus v NEC Nijmegen
5–0Juventus or NEC Nijmegen
market consensus 85% · price implies 89%1.12 (3/25)
Europa League · Thu 17 SepWON
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznań
4–0Crystal Palace (DNB)
market consensus 83% · price implies 88%1.13 (13/100)
Tournament window · live
Europe's nights, called.
Strike calls on tournament fixtures · each at a UK bookmaker's quote, published before kick-off and kept on the ledger
UEFA Nations League
7 calls
from Sep 24
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The ledger
Every call. Losers included.
Newest first · 4,222 calls · 73 live, each at the price quoted when we published · 4,149 walk-forward, each at its archived closing price
Live calls appear here the day after their fixture; subscribers see them before kick-off. Walk-forward calls, labelled on each card, were worked out afterwards on archived closing prices and never published before kick-off. A card's details show the UK market fair (de-vigged) — favourites tend to land a little above it with or without a model.
Sat 1 Aug
walk-forward- Chinese Super League · Sat 1 Augwalk-forward · archived closing priceChengdu Rongcheng v Wuhan Three Towns1–1✓ours 88% · price implies 90% · 69% / 19% / 12%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineChengdu Rongcheng or drawDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.06 (3/50) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 11:25 UTC · kick-off 12:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 86% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Chinese Super League · Sat 1 Augwalk-forward · archived closing priceBeijing Guoan v Zhejiang Professional2–1✓ours 80% · price implies 87% · 60% / 20% / 20%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineBeijing Guoan or drawDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.14 (7/50) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 11:00 UTC · kick-off 11:35 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- MLS · Sat 1 Augwalk-forward · archived closing priceNew York City v Toronto FC1–1✓ours 82% · price implies 85% · 59% / 23% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineNew York City or drawDC1.18 (9/50) at William Hill · next best 1.15 (3/20) at Virgin Betarchived quote 22:55 UTC · kick-off 23:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
Fri 31 Jul
walk-forward- Scottish Prem · Fri 31 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceDundee United v Rangers1–1✓ours 83% · price implies 85% · 17% / 21% / 62%rating blended with Bet365's pre-match priceRangers or drawDC1.18 (9/50) at William Hill · next best 1.16 (4/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 18:25 UTC · kick-off 19:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 80% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Eliteserien · Fri 31 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceBodo/Glimt v Lillestrom4–0✓ours 87% · price implies 90% · 78% / 13% / 9%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineBodo/Glimt or LillestromDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.09 (9/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 18:25 UTC · kick-off 19:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
Wed 29 Jul
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Wed 29 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceMirassol v Remo2–1✓ours 83% · price implies 85% · 59% / 24% / 17%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineMirassol or drawDC1.17 (17/100) at William Hill · next best 1.13 (13/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 21:55 UTC · kick-off 22:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
Mon 27 Jul
walk-forward- Eliteserien · Mon 27 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceRosenborg v Fredrikstad4–0✓ours 81% · price implies 87% · 58% / 23% / 19%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineRosenborg or drawDC1.15 (3/20) at William Hill · next best 1.10 (1/10) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 16:25 UTC · kick-off 17:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Sun 26 Jul
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing pricePalmeiras v Atletico-MG1–2✗ours 81% · price implies 83% · 61% / 24% / 15%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match linePalmeiras (DNB)DNB1.20 (1/5) at Coral · next best 1.18 (9/50) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 21:55 UTC · kick-off 22:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 77% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceBragantino v Coritiba0–0✓ours 82% · price implies 85% · 58% / 24% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineBragantino or drawDC1.17 (17/100) at William Hill · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 20:55 UTC · kick-off 21:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceFlamengo RJ v Sao Paulo1–1–ours 84% · price implies 87% · 66% / 21% / 13%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineFlamengo RJ (DNB)DNB1.15 (3/20) at Coral · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 20:55 UTC · kick-off 21:30 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Eliteserien · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceAalesund v Viking1–1–ours 81% · price implies 82% · 16% / 18% / 66%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineViking (DNB)DNB1.22 (11/50) at Coral · next best 1.18 (9/50) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 16:40 UTC · kick-off 17:15 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 77% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Eliteserien · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceSandefjord v Bodo/Glimt0–3✓ours 83% · price implies 88% · 14% / 17% / 69%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineBodo/Glimt (DNB)DNB1.14 (7/50) at Coral · next best 1.11 (11/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 14:25 UTC · kick-off 15:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Allsvenskan · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceGAIS v Halmstad1–1–ours 86% · price implies 83% · 69% / 19% / 11%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineGAIS (DNB)DNB1.20 (1/5) at Coral · next best 1.16 (4/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 13:55 UTC · kick-off 14:30 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 78% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Allsvenskan · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceSirius v Goteborg4–1✓ours 82% · price implies 90% · 62% / 21% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineSirius or drawDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.07 (7/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 11:25 UTC · kick-off 12:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 86% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Allsvenskan · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceBrommapojkarna v Hammarby1–1–ours 81% · price implies 88% · 15% / 19% / 65%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineHammarby (DNB)DNB1.14 (7/50) at Coral · next best 1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 11:25 UTC · kick-off 12:00 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 82% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- MLS · Sun 26 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceLos Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City4–0✓ours 89% · price implies 91% · 77% / 14% / 10%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineLos Angeles FC (DNB)DNB1.10 (1/10) at Coral · next best 1.05 (1/20) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 01:55 UTC · kick-off 02:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 87% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Sat 25 Jul
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Sat 25 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceSantos v Chapecoense-SC2–2–ours 86% · price implies 90% · 70% / 19% / 11%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineSantos (DNB)DNB1.11 (11/100) at Coral · next best 1.08 (2/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 20:55 UTC · kick-off 21:30 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Allsvenskan · Sat 25 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceDegerfors v Djurgarden0–1✓ours 82% · price implies 85% · 18% / 23% / 60%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineDjurgarden or drawDC1.18 (9/50) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 12:25 UTC · kick-off 13:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Fri 24 Jul
walk-forward- Allsvenskan · Fri 24 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceVasteras SK v Orgryte2–0✓ours 82% · price implies 85% · 62% / 20% / 18%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineVasteras SK or drawDC1.18 (9/50) at William Hill · next best 1.11 (11/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 16:25 UTC · kick-off 17:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 81% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Thu 23 Jul
walk-forward- Brasileirão Série A · Thu 23 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceBotafogo RJ v Vitoria0–0–ours 81% · price implies 77% · 64% / 21% / 15%rating: the model's aloneBotafogo RJ (DNB)DNB1.30 (3/10) at Coral · next best 1.28 (7/25) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 21:55 UTC · kick-off 22:30 UTCvoid: a Draw No Bet call voids on a draw
Details
UK market fair 72% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Thu 23 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceCorinthians v Remo3–0✓ours 80% · price implies 90% · 57% / 24% / 20%rating: the model's aloneCorinthians or drawDC1.11 (11/100) at William Hill · next best 1.07 (7/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote 21:55 UTC · kick-off 22:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 86% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- MLS · Thu 23 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceSan Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City0–4✓ours 80% · price implies 83% · 60% / 20% / 21%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineSan Jose Earthquakes or Orlando CityDC1.20 (1/5) at William Hill · next best 1.18 (9/50) at Virgin Betarchived quote 01:55 UTC · kick-off 02:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 79% (de-vigged, 3 prices)
- MLS · Thu 23 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceNashville SC v CF Montreal1–0✓ours 81% · price implies 83% · 64% / 21% / 15%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineNashville SC (DNB)DNB1.20 (1/5) at Coral · next best 1.17 (17/100) at LiveScore Betarchived quote Wed 23:55 UTC · kick-off 00:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 78% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
- Brasileirão Série A · Thu 23 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceChapecoense-SC v Flamengo RJ0–4✓ours 84% · price implies 89% · 13% / 20% / 67%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineFlamengo RJ (DNB)DNB1.12 (3/25) at LiveScore Bet · next best 1.11 (11/100) at Coralarchived quote Wed 23:55 UTC · kick-off 00:30 UTC
Details
UK market fair 83% (de-vigged, 2 prices)
Wed 22 Jul
walk-forward- Eliteserien · Wed 22 Julwalk-forward · archived closing priceBodo/Glimt v HamKam3–0✓ours 86% · price implies 90% · 86% / 8% / 5%rating blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match lineBodo/Glimt to win1X21.11 (11/100) at Betfair Exchange (exchange, before commission) · next best 1.11 (11/100) at Matchbook (exchange, before commission)archived quote 16:25 UTC · kick-off 17:00 UTC
Details
UK market fair 85% (de-vigged, 14 prices)
By rating band.
The rating each call carried — on a live call when it was published, on a walk-forward call when it was worked out — against how often calls in that band landed. The tick marks the chance their prices implied.
Decided calls: 3,848 walk-forward, 72 live
- 80–85%84% landed · 3,264 decided · prices implied 86%
- 85–90%90% landed · 632 decided · prices implied 89%
- 90–95%17 decided · rate shown from 50
- 95%+7 decided · rate shown from 50
Axis 50–100% · voids are left out of every band's rate
By market and league.
Settled calls · a rate is shown from 50 decided calls
Decided calls: 3,848 walk-forward, 72 live
By market
| Group | Decided | Void | Strike | Prices implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw No Bet home or away · void on draw | 1,283 | 302 | 85% | 87% |
1X2 match result | 297 | 0 | 87% | 85% |
Double Chance two of three outcomes | 2,340 | 0 | 84% | 87% |
By league
| Group | Decided | Void | Strike | Prices implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Premier League E0Europe | 349 | 34 | 86% | 87% |
Championship E1Europe | 266 | 20 | 84% | 86% |
Bundesliga D1Europe | 259 | 21 | 86% | 86% |
La Liga SP1Europe | 350 | 19 | 86% | 87% |
Ligue 1 F1Europe | 250 | 23 | 86% | 87% |
Scottish Prem SC0Europe | 227 | 13 | 84% | 86% |
Primeira Liga P1Europe | 333 | 22 | 86% | 87% |
Serie A I1Europe | 391 | 39 | 85% | 87% |
Belgian Pro League B1Europe | 208 | 15 | 86% | 86% |
Allsvenskan SE1Coverage | 188 | 15 | 82% | 87% |
Eliteserien NO1Coverage | 220 | 7 | 85% | 87% |
J1 League JPNCoverage | 90 | 8 | 81% | 86% |
Brasileirão Série A BRACoverage | 329 | 26 | 85% | 86% |
MLS USACoverage | 266 | 22 | 81% | 86% |
Chinese Super League CHNCoverage | 186 | 18 | 85% | 87% |
Europa League UELTournament | 8 | 0 | — | — |
The strike rate, call by call.
Each point: every decided call to that point · voids left out
FAQ
Straight answers.
What do I get for free?
14 days of calls, sent to you on Telegram — the same messages subscribers get. One tap to start: no card and no email.
What happens when the trial ends?
Nothing is charged — we never took a card. If you want to keep getting the calls, you subscribe; if not, they simply stop.
How do I get the calls?
On days with calls, they arrive on Telegram at 07:00 UTC as direct messages, each naming the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted. Subscribers see every call on the website, including any made after the morning messages.
Why so few calls?
A call goes out only when it is rated 80% or better and a UK bookmaker or exchange is quoting a price for it. Some days there are several, some days none — we don't pad the list.
What does “rated 80%” mean?
It's our estimate of how likely the call is to land — from our model for league fixtures, from a market-led rating for tournaments. It's a rating, not a promise: every call, and whether it landed, is on the public record, so you can see how the ratings have held up.
Do I place bets here?
No — Kestra isn't a bookmaker, and nothing is placed through us. Each live call names the UK bookmaker or exchange that was quoting the price when we published, and each walk-forward call the archived closing quote it was worked out from; what you do with it is your own decision.
How do I know it's real and not cherry-picked?
Every call on the live record is published before kick-off, naming the UK bookmaker or exchange, the price and the time it was quoted, and every one settles in public — won, lost or void. One call per fixture. For league fixtures the model is fit walk-forward, so it is never trained on the day it calls. The ledger's calls before live calls began are walk-forward: the same rules applied afterwards to archived closing prices, each labelled on its card, none published before kick-off.
What happens on a losing run?
No model wins every week, and we never pretend otherwise — every loss stays on the public record beside the wins. Each call shows the chance its price implies next to our rating, so you can judge the record for yourself. Please gamble responsibly, and never with money you can't afford to lose.
Can I cancel?
Anytime. It's a 30-day rolling subscription — no lock-in, no contract.
The rules
For the sceptics: the exact rules every call follows, and how we count.
- Three markets
- Every call is a 1X2 result, a Draw No Bet or a Double Chance, rated 80% or better. Over/Under and both teams to score are rated but not published.
- Direct UK quotes only
- A call carries only a price a UK bookmaker or exchange quoted for that exact market, at 1.10 or longer — never a price worked out from another market: on a live call, the quote when we published; on a walk-forward call, the archived closing quote.
- One call per fixture
- When more than one market qualifies, the call is taken in a fixed order — Draw No Bet, then 1X2, then Double Chance — never simply the highest rating, because Double Chance on the same side always rates at least as high.
- No call on thin history
- No call on a league fixture where either club has played fewer than six league matches: the model cannot rate a club from so few games.
- Tournament calls
- On a tournament fixture the rating is led by the bookmakers' consensus. For the European club competitions it is exactly that consensus with each margin removed, so there the 80% bar is a market threshold; for national sides it is a blend in which that consensus carries most of the weight, beside national-team ratings. Each tournament call says which, and knockout ties are never called, because bookmakers settle these markets on 90 minutes.
- What “price implies” means
- One divided by the price: at 1.25 the price implies 80%. It includes the bookmaker's margin. Beside a strike rate, it shows how often calls at those prices would land if the prices were exactly right.
- The UK market fair
- Each ledger card's details also show the UK market fair: the chance implied by the UK bookmakers quoting the full market once each one's margin is removed (de-vigged), with identical price sets counted once and exchanges left out. Favourites tend to land a little above it with or without a model, so it is a reference, not a test.
- Exchanges
- Exchange prices are shown before commission, so a winning exchange call returns less than its price shows.
- Voids
- A void neither lands nor misses — a Draw No Bet call on a draw, or a fixture that is not played. Voids stay on the ledger and are left out of every strike rate.
Walk-forward calls · on the ledger, labelled
The ledger's calls on fixtures that kicked off before live calls began (10 Sep 2026, 17:51 UTC) are walk-forward: the same selection rules applied to archived closing UK quotes in 15 leagues from May 2023, with each rating fitted only on matches played before its fixture. None was published or sent at the time.
The rules were fixed in September 2026, and the model's settings (its blend weight, and which ratings it blends) were chosen during 2026, both with this period in view; only each rating's fit is walk-forward.
Walk-forward calls use closing UK quotes taken about 30 minutes before kick-off; live calls are priced up to about 40 hours before kick-off, so a live price can differ from a closing one.
European ratings are blended with football-data's Pinnacle pre-match price, or Bet365's where Pinnacle's is missing, or are the model's alone where neither was available; coverage-league ratings are blended with Pinnacle's archived pre-match line, or are the model's alone where none was archived; live calls are blended with Pinnacle's line from the odds feed, or are the model's alone where the feed had none. Each walk-forward card says which.
Of the 5,213 fixtures where the model rated a selection 80% or better, 4,149 became walk-forward calls and 1,064 were left out: 833 with no UK bookmaker or exchange quoting that market at 1.10 or longer before kick-off, 179 with a club that had played fewer than six league matches, and 52 the archive could not match to a pre-kick-off quote or a UK market fair.
On the model's Draw No Bet ratings in the 55–80% band (nine European leagues, 2022-23 to 2026-27, decided fixtures), it added no measurable information to Pinnacle's closing price (z −0.50, n 5,130). We make no claim that it knows more than the market; the ledger shows how often calls at these prices land.
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